December 30, 2009

Dear Fellow Republicans:

As we conclude 2009, it is a good time to reflect on the year's developments and make preparations for what is to come. Today, in the contest to win the Republican nomination to challenge Senator Chris Dodd, former

Congressman Rob Simmons continues to find himself in the strongest position to carry his party's banner in the general election and defeat a 30-year incumbent. Simmons' strength has been demonstrated in both public and private polling showing him as the superior candidate against Dodd. A recent survey released by Quinnipiac University showed Simmons led all candidates - both Republican and Democratic - by double digits, as well as having a much stronger favorable/unfavorable rating than both Dodd and former World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. (WWE) Chief Executive Officer Linda McMahon. ("Simmons Runs Better Than McMahon Against Dodd, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lieberman Is More Republican, Voters Say 2-1," Quinnipiac University, 11/12/09)

Even Dodd's own polling seems to show that Simmons is by far the best-positioned candidate in a general election match up. Dodd's pollster concedes that even after negative information is shared about Simmons, at best, Dodd is statistically tied. On the other hand, when voters learn more about McMahon, any standing she has completely erodes and Dodd beats her fairly convincingly. ("Dodd Camp Still Holding On To Hope," NBC Connecticut, 12/23/09)

After having spent millions of dollars unopposed on television, McMahon continues to struggle to identify with voters in Connecticut as news reports expose her numerous weaknesses. According to Rasmussen, "[f]or McMahon, very favorables total 14% and very unfavorables are 17%." ("2010 Connecticut Senate: Dodd Struggles Against All Republican Challengers," Rasmussen Reports, 12/8/09)

This finding confirms what many following the race already believe to be true - that McMahon's candidacy provides Dodd a pathway to re-election. And a recent news report validates this with Dodd's own loyalists viewing McMahon as his "best hope" and "the key to his salvation." (Matt Lewis, "Can Chris Dodd Be Beat in 2010? Wrestlemania Comes to Connecticut," Politics Daily, 12/8/09)

The sentiment that Rob Simmons can put a targeted seat into play for Republicans on Election Day 2010 is held by respected political analysts, such as National Journal's Charlie Cook and The Atlantic's Ron Brownstein. According to Cook, "Rob Simmons would be the more formidable general election candidate." And according to Brownstein, "If she [Linda McMahon] wins the primary against Rob Simmons, I would think Dodd's odds, Dodd's prospects go up substantially." (MSNBC's "Hardball," 12/22/09)

And the reality is that voters in Connecticut are learning more about McMahon each day. Numerous press reports have exposed various McMahon vulnerabilities - from her nearly non-existent personal voting record and substantial donations to Democratic candidates, to a string of pro wrestlers revealing troubling WWE business practices, to the sad reports of the extraordinarily high propensity of wrestlers dying in their 30's and 40's. It's clear that McMahon's candidacy provides the Dodd campaign and national Democrat committees with no shortage of vulnerabilities they could very effectively exploit.("WWE Exec Admits She Didn't Vote In Elections," The Associated Press, 9/22/09; "GOP's Simmons, Caligiuri Criticize Linda McMahon For Donating More Than $35,000 To Democratic Candidates," The Hartford Courant's "Capitol Watch" Blog, 10/11/09)

McMahon's liabilities on the campaign trail are reinforced by the curious tactics employed by her campaign. Whether it's threatening to run as an independent should she lose the GOP nomination, failing to properly disclose her enormous campaign spending, releasing internal polling compiled by a pollster who is under investigation for unsavory and potentially illegal practices, falsely claiming a broadly distributed video of President Obama addressing troops somehow specifically justified or vindicated WWE's troubling business practices, or even going so far as to invoke President Lincoln to defend her pro wrestling background, McMahon's campaign performance should be of concern to anyone committed to replacing Dodd next fall. (YouTube, 11/23/09; Ted Mann, "McMahon Campaign Reports Lush Spending, But Not Much Detail," New London Day, 12/11/09; Daniela Altimari, "White House Says Troops Message Not Tailored To WWE," The Hartford Courant, 12/17/09; Brian Lockhart, "Linda McMahon Using Lincoln To Defend Wrestling Is Nothing New," Political Capitol, 12/20/09)

But McMahon's inconsistency is best exemplified by the unsustainable positions she has taken on public policy issues. Once questioned, McMahon's lack of experience clearly reveals itself and would be devastating for Republicans if matched against a senior member of the Senate and committee chairman with well over a quarter century in politics.

McMahon now supports the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which is an indefensible position in today's environment for any candidate, much less someone seeking the Republican nomination. Her stance on TARP is exacerbated by the fact that under her leadership WWE sought and received taxpayer-funded subsidies while making layoffs. (Aaron Blake, "Incumbents From Both Parties May Require Their Own Bailouts," The Hill, 12/16/09; Don Michak, "McMahon's Company Got Millions In State Tax Credits Weeks Before Entering The Race," The Journal Inquirer, 10/29/09)

McMahon was uncertain of her position on the 2001 or 2003 tax cuts, once again, a debilitating stance for anyone claiming to be a fiscal conservative seeking votes from Republicans in a primary and virtually impossible to explain in a general election.(Chris Cillizza, "Morning Fix: Voters Are Voting In Massachusetts!," The Washington Post's "The Fix" Blog, 12/8/08)

And McMahon does not have a position on whether the mastermind of the worst terrorist strike in American history should be tried on American soil and granted Constitutional rights, with the very real prospect that a change of venue in the case could result in Connecticut hosting the trial.

Even after months in the race and millions of dollars spent, McMahon tells voters they have to wait to learn what she believes in saying, "I'll probably have more firm policy statements after the first of the year," but in the meantime she knows the first thing she'd do if she does get elected: "I'd enjoy taking a tour of the Capitol and seeing what the Senate chamber looks like." (Ben Johnson, "Dodd Challenger Crashes The Tailgate," New Haven Independent, 11/23/09; Daniela Altimari, "McMahon Eager To Wrestle In Political Ring," Hartford Courant, 12/20/09)

Against Simmons, a former member of the Armed Services, Central Intelligence Agency and Member of Congress, the stature gap is very real and reflective of the difficulties McMahon would face against the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and senior member of the Foreign Relations and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committees.

As a result of the differences between Simmons and McMahon on policy, experience and viability, the grassroots support key to winning the May state convention has overwhelmingly gone to Simmons. With at least 50-plus endorsements among super delegates to McMahon's two, Simmons has demonstrated broad grassroots support and built a statewide network of key supporters.

Yet, McMahon continues to spend millions and millions of dollars on promotional advertising on television, radio, and mail and there is no reason to expect she won't continue to try to leverage her vast fortune. And, there is no question that this will have some effect on the race in the weeks and months to come as she increases her name recognition and has the airwaves to herself, and thus it would be not be surprising to see the numbers among all the candidates tighten at some point in the coming year.

But having been earned in an uncontested media environment McMahon's support should be considered extremely fragile. As soon as she is contested on the airwaves and voters are presented with an alternative, her support will dissipate. Furthermore, those voting in the convention have been following the race much more closely than the general public and are more aware of McMahon's vulnerabilities as a candidate and Simmons' strengths.

In conclusion, we should be prepared for a tough campaign both in the primary and general elections. Rob has demonstrated he can raise sufficient resources to get his message out, while continuing to build the grassroots support necessary to compete successfully next year. Ultimately, Republicans will nominate the candidate who has a proven track record of winning tough races and who gives them the best opportunity to defeat Senator Dodd, and general election voters will send to Washington the candidate who has exhibited throughout his entire life in public service a broad range of relevant experience and the honesty, integrity and decency that Dodd so sorely lacks. For these reasons and more, Rob Simmons will be the next senator from Connecticut.

Paid for by Simmons for Senate

JoinRobSimmons.com

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